Severe Prediction Center (2024)

FAQs

What is the tornado prediction for 2024? ›

AccuWeather is predicting 1,250 to 1,375 tornadoes in the United States in 2024, above the historical average of 1,225, but fewer than the 1,423 twisters that were tallied in 2023. Pastelok added that there could be an uptick in tornado activity in California.

Severe Weather Risks

2-SLGT (yellow) - Slight risk - An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity. 3-ENH (orange) - Enhanced risk - An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.

Convective Outlook

(sometimes called AC) - A forecast containing the area(s) of expected thunderstorm occurrence and expected severity over the contiguous United States, issued several times daily by the SPC.

The database contains the time, latitude/longitude, intensity (hail size, maximum gust), and the number of fatalities and injuries caused by each event. Since 1996, estimates of the dollar amount of damage are also recorded.

There hasn't been a tornado rated EF5 in the U.S. since the Oklahoma City/Moore tornado on May 20, 2013. Almost 90% of tornadoes from 2000 through 2022 were weak — rated F/EF0 or F/EF1 — but they're still capable of light to moderate damage to trees and homes, and significant damage to mobile homes.

The nation's last EF-5 tornado struck Moore, Oklahoma, on May 20, 2013.

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one which produces winds of 58 mph or greater, 3/4 inch hail or larger or tornadoes. Areas over west central Florida experience more thunderstorms per year on average than any other location in the U.S. with > 100 per year (See graph above).

Threat: A low threat to life and property. Minimum Action: Preparations should be made for a low likelihood (or a 5 to 14% probability) of tornadoes; scattered tornadoes of F0 to F1 intensity possible. Potential Impact: The potential for scattered locations to experience minor to moderate tornado damage (see below).

Is an F6 Tornado Possible? There has never been an (E)F-6 tornado recorded, but they're technically not impossible. An F-6 tornado would need to reach wind speeds beyond 318 mph; however, the highest wind speeds ever recorded on Earth were 302 mph.

Where is Tornado Alley in 2024? ›

That's exactly what was happening in spring 2024. The tornadoes mostly occurred in the traditional Tornado Alley, from northern Texas to South Dakota, with an extension across the Corn Belt through Iowa and as far east as Ohio, matching the findings of that study.

With the aid of modern observing systems, such as vertically pointing radars (called wind profilers) and imaging systems on satellites that can measure the flow of water vapour through the Earth's atmosphere, forecasters can usually identify where conditions will be favourable for tornado formation one to seven hours ...

From April 25 to 28, 2024, a very large, deadly and destructive tornado outbreak occurred across the Midwestern, Southern, and High Plains regions of the United States, primarily on April 26 and 27.

On May 23, NOAA released their first prediction, calling for a near-normal season with 9–15 named systems, 4–8 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes. On May 30, NOAA released a forecast, which called for an above average season with 14–16 named storms, 6–8 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes.

However, peak tornado season is during the months of March through June, with nearly 70 percent of all tornadoes occurring during this time period.